Introduction

In today’s digital landscape, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platforms have become indispensable for businesses, offering unparalleled flexibly, scalability, and accessibly across locations. However, this convenience comes with a significant caveat - an expanded attack surface that cyber criminals are increasingly exploiting. In 2023, 96.7% of organizations reported security incidents involving at least one SaaS application [1].

Virtual private networks (VPNs) play a crucial role in SaaS security, acting as gateways for secure remote access and safeguarding sensitive data and systems when properly configured. However, vulnerabilities in VPNs can create openings for attacks to exploit, allowing them to infiltrate SaaS environments, compromise data, and disrupt business operations. Notably, in early 2024, the Darktrace Threat Research team investigated the exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities in Ivanti Connect Secure VPNs, which would allow threat actors to gain access to sensitive systems and execute remote code.

More recently, in August, Darktrace identified a SaaS compromise where a threat actor logged into a customer’s VPN from an unusual IP address, following an initial email compromise. The attacker then used a separate VPN to create a new email rule designed to obfuscate the phishing campaign they would later launch.

‍

Attack Overview

The initial attack vector in this case appeared to be through the customer’s email environment. A trusted external contact received a malicious email from another mutual contact who had been compromised and forwarded it to several of the organization’s employees, believing it to be legitimate. Attackers often send malicious emails from compromised accounts to their past contacts, leveraging the trust associated with familiar email addresses. In this case, that trust caused an external victim to unknowingly propagate the attack further. Unfortunately, an internal user then interacted with a malicious payload included in the reply section of the forwarded email.

Later the same day, Darktrace / IDENTITY detected unusual login attempts from the IP 5.62.57[.]7, which had never been accessed by other SaaS users before. There were two failed attempts prior to the successful logins, with the error messages “Authentication failed due to flow token expired” and “This occurred due to 'Keep me signed in' interrupt when the user was signing in.” These failed attempts indicate that the threat actor may have been attempting to gain unauthorized access using stolen credentials or exploiting session management vulnerabilities. Furthermore, there was no attempt to use multi-factor authentication (MFA) during the successful login, suggesting that the threat actor had compromised the account’s credentials.

Following this, Darktrace detected the now compromised account creating a new email rule named “.” – a telltale sign of a malicious actor attempting to hide behind an ambiguous or generic rule name.

The email rule itself was designed to archive incoming emails and mark them as read, effectively hiding them from the user’s immediate view. By moving emails to the “Archive” folder, which is not frequently checked by end users, the attacker can conceal malicious communications and avoid detection. The settings also prevent any automatic deletion of the rules or forced overrides, indicating a cautious approach to maintaining control over the mailbox without raising suspicion. This technique allows the attacker to manipulate email visibility while maintaining a façade of normality in the compromised account.

Email Rule:

• AlwaysDeleteOutlookRulesBlob: False
• Force: False
• MoveToFolder: Archive
• Name: .
• MarkAsRead: True
• StopProcessingRules: True

Darktrace further identified that this email rule had been created from another IP address, 95.142.124[.]42, this time located in Canada. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources indicated this endpoint may have been malicious [2].

Given that this new email rule was created just three minutes after the initial login from a different IP in a different country, Darktrace recognized a geographic inconsistency. By analyzing the timing and rarity of the involved IP addresses, Darktrace identified the likelihood of malicious activity rather than legitimate user behavior, prompting further investigation.

Just one minute later, Darktrace observed the attacker sending a large number of phishing emails to both internal and external recipients.

‍Darktrace / EMAIL detected a significant spike in inbound emails for the compromised account, likely indicating replies to phishing emails.

Furthermore, Darktrace identified that these phishing emails contained a malicious DocSend link. While docsend[.]com is generally recognized as a legitimate file-sharing service belonging to Dropbox, it can be vulnerable to exploitation for hosting malicious content. In this instance, the DocSend domain in question, ‘hxxps://docsend[.]com/view/h9t85su8njxtugmq’, was flagged as malicious by various OSINT vendors [3][4].

In this case, Darktrace Autonomous Response was not in active mode in the customer’s environment, which allowed the compromise to escalate until their security team intervened based on Darktrace’s alerts. Had Autonomous Response been enabled during the incident, it could have quickly mitigated the threat by disabling users and inbox rules, as suggested by Darktrace as actions that could be manually applied, exhibiting unusual behavior within the customer’s SaaS environment.

Despite this, Darktrace’s Managed Threat Detection service promptly alerted the Security Operations Center (SOC) team about the compromise, allowing them to conduct a thorough investigation and inform the customer before any further damage could take place.

‍

Conclusion

This incident highlights the role of Darktrace in enhancing cyber security through its advanced AI capabilities. By detecting the initial phishing email and tracking the threat actor's actions across the SaaS environment, Darktrace effectively identified the threat and brought it to the attention of the customer’s security team.

Darktrace’s proactive monitoring was crucial in recognizing the unusual behavior of the compromised account. Darktrace / IDENTITY detected unauthorized access attempts from rare IP addresses, revealing the attacker’s use of a VPN to hide their location.

Correlating these anomalies allowed Darktrace to prompt immediate investigation, showcasing its ability to identify malicious activities that traditional security tools might miss. By leveraging AI-driven insights, organizations can strengthen their defense posture and prevent further exploitation of compromised accounts.

Credit to Priya Thapa (Cyber Analyst), Ben Atkins (Senior Model Developer) and Ryan Traill (Analyst Content Lead)

Appendices

Real-time Detection Models

• SaaS / Compromise / Unusual Login and New Email Rule
• SaaS / Compromise / High Priority New Email Rule
• SaaS / Compromise / New Email Rule and Unusual Email Activity
• SaaS / Compromise / Unusual Login and Outbound Email Spam
• SaaS / Compliance / Anomalous New Email Rule
• SaaS / Compromise / Suspicious Login and Suspicious Outbound Email(s)
• SaaS / Email Nexus / Possible Outbound Email Spam

Autonomous Response Models

• Antigena / SaaS / Antigena Email Rule Block
• Antigena / SaaS / Antigena Enhanced Monitoring from SaaS User Block
• Antigena / SaaS / Antigena Suspicious SaaS Activity Block

MITRE ATT&CK Mapping

Technique Name Tactic ID Sub-Technique of

• Cloud Accounts. DEFENSE EVASION, PERSISTENCE, PRIVILEGE ESCALATION, INITIAL ACCESS T1078.004 T1078
• Compromise Accounts RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT T1586
• Email Accounts RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT T1586.002 T1586
• Internal Spearphishing LATERAL MOVEMENT T1534 -
• Outlook Rules PERSISTENCE T1137.005 T1137
• Phishing INITIAL ACCESS T1566 -

Indicators of Compromise (IoCs)

IoC – Type – Description

5.62.57[.]7 – Unusual Login Source

95.142.124[.]42– IP – Unusual Source for Email Rule

hxxps://docsend[.]com/view/h9t85su8njxtugmq - Domain - Phishing Link

References

[1] https://wing.security/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2024-State-of-SaaS-Report-Wing-Security.pdf

[2] https://www.virustotal.com/gui/ip-address/95.142.124.42

[3] https://urlscan.io/result/0caf3eee-9275-4cda-a28f-6d3c6c3c1039/

[4] https://www.virustotal.com/gui/url/8631f8004ee000b3f74461e5060e6972759c8d38ea8c359d85da9014101daddb

‍

‍

‍

Each year, Darktrace's AI and cybersecurity experts reflect on the events of the past 12 months and predict the trends we expect to shape the cybersecurity landscape in the year ahead. In 2024, we predicted that the global elections, fast-moving AI innovations, and increasingly cloud-based IT environments would be key factors shaping the cyber threat landscape.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the total addressable market of cybercrime to expand as attackers add more tactics to their toolkits. Threat actors will continue to take advantage of the volatile geopolitical environment and cybersecurity challenges will increasingly move to new frontiers like space. When it comes to AI, we anticipate the innovation in AI agents in 2024 to pave the way for the rise of multi-agent systems in 2025, creating new challenges and opportunities for cybersecurity professionals and attackers alike.

Here are ten trends to watch for in 2025:

The overall Total Addressable Market (TAM) of cybercrime gets bigger

Cybercrime is a global business, and an increasingly lucrative one, scaling through the adoption of AI and cybercrime-as-a-service. Annual revenue from cybercrime is already estimated to be over $8 trillion, which we’ve found is almost 5x greater than the revenue of the Magnificent Seven stocks. There are a few key factors driving this growth.

The ongoing growth of devices and systems means that existing malware families will continue to be successful. As of October 2024, it’s estimated that more than 5.52 billion people (~67%) have access to the internet and sources estimate 18.8 billion connected devices will be online by the end of 2024. The increasing adoption of AI is poised to drive even more interconnected systems as well as new data centers and infrastructure globally.

At the same time, more sophisticated capabilities are available for low-level attackers – we’ve already seen the trickle-down economic benefits of living off the land, edge infrastructure exploitation, and identity-focused exploitation. The availability of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) and Malware-as-a-Service (MaaS) make more advanced tactics the norm. The subscription income that these groups can generate enables more adversarial innovation, so attacks are getting faster and more effective with even bigger financial ramifications.

While there has also been an increasing trend in the last year of improved cross-border law enforcement, the efficacy of these efforts remains to be seen as cybercriminal gangs are also getting more resilient and professionalized. They are building better back-up systems and infrastructure as well as more multi-national networks and supply chains.

Security teams need to prepare for the rise of AI agents and multi-agent systems

Throughout 2024, we’ve seen major announcements about advancements in AI agents from the likes of OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce, and more. In 2025, we’ll see increasing innovation in and adoption of AI agents as well as the emergence of multi-agent systems (or “agent swarms”), where groups of autonomous agents work together to tackle complex tasks.

The rise of AI agents and multi-agent systems will introduce new challenges in cybersecurity, including new attack vectors and vulnerabilities. Security teams need to think about how to protect these systems to prevent data poisoning, prompt injection, or social engineering attacks.

One benefit of multi-agent systems is that agents can autonomously communicate, collaborate, and interact. However without clear and distinct boundaries and explicit permissions, this can also pose a major data privacy risk and avenue for manipulation. These issues cannot be addressed by traditional application testing alone. We must ensure these systems are secure by design, where robust protective mechanisms and data guardrails are built into the foundations.

Threat actors will be the earliest adopters of AI agents and multi-agent systems

We’ve already seen how quickly threat actors have been able to adopt generative AI for tasks like email phishing and reconnaissance. The next frontier for threat actors will be AI agents and multi-agent systems that are specialized in autonomous tasks like surveillance, initial access brokering, privilege escalation, vulnerability exploitation, data summarization for smart exfiltration, and more. Because they have no concern for safe, secure, accurate, and responsible use, adversaries will adopt these systems faster than cyber defenders.

We could also start to see use cases emerge for multi-agent systems in cyber defense – with potential for early use cases in incident response, application testing, and vulnerability discovery. On the whole, security teams will be slower to adopt these systems than adversaries because of the need to put in place proper security guardrails and build trust over time.

There is heightened supply chain risk for Large Language Models (LLMs)

Training LLMs requires a lot of data, and many experts have warned that world is running out of quality data for that training. As a result, there will be an increasing reliance on synthetic data, which can introduce new issues of accuracy and efficacy. Moreover, data supply chain risks will be an Achilles heel for organizations, with the potential interjection of vulnerabilities through the data and machine learning providers that they rely on. Poisoning one data set could have huge trickle-down impacts across many different systems. Data security will be paramount in 2025.

The race to identify software vulnerabilities intensifies

The time it takes for threat actors to exploit newly published CVEs is getting shorter, giving defenders an even smaller window to apply patches and remediations. A 2024 report from Cloudflare found that threat actors quickly weaponized proof of concept exploits in attacks as quickly as 22 minutes after the exploits were made public.

At the same time, 2024 also saw the first reports from researchers across academia and the tech industry using AI for vulnerability discovery in real-world code. With threat actors getting faster at exploiting vulnerabilities, defenders will need to use AI to identify vulnerabilities in their software stack and to help identify and prioritize remediations and patches.

Insider threat risks will force organizations to evolve zero trust strategies

In 2025, an increasingly volatile geopolitical situation and the intensity of the AI race will make insider threats an even bigger risk for businesses, forcing organizations to expand zero-trust strategies. The traditional zero-trust model provides protection from external threats to an organization’s network by requiring continuous verification of the devices and users attempting to access critical business systems, services, and information from multiple sources. However, as we have seen in the more recent Jack Teixeira case, malicious insiders can still do significant damage to an organization within their approved and authenticated boundary.

To circumvent the remaining security gaps in a zero-trust architecture and mitigate increasing risk of insider threats, organizations will need to integrate a behavioral understanding dimension to their zero-trust approaches. The zero-trust best practice of “never trust, always verify” needs to evolve to become “never trust, always verify, and continuously monitor.”

Identity remains an expensive problem for businesses

2024 saw some of the biggest and costliest attacks – all because the attacker had access to compromised credentials. Essentially, they had the key to the front door. Businesses still struggle with identity and access management (IAM), and it’s getting more complex now that we’re in the middle of a massive Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) migration driven by increasing rates of AI and cloud use across businesses.

This challenge is going to be exacerbated in 2025 by a few global and business factors. First, there is an increasing push for digital identities, such as the rollout of the EU Digital Identity Framework that is underway, which could introduce additional attack vectors. As they scale, businesses are turning more and more to centralized identity and access solutions with decentralized infrastructure and relying on SaaS and application-native security.

Increasing vulnerabilities at the edge

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations had to stand-up remote access solutions quickly – in a matter of days or weeks – without the high level of due diligence that they require to be fully secured. In 2025, we expect to see continued fall-out as these quickly spun-up solutions start to present genuine vulnerability to businesses. We’ve already seen this start to play out in 2024 with the mass-exploitation of internet-edge devices like firewalls and VPN gateway products.

By July 2024, Darktrace’s threat research team observed that the most widely exploited edge infrastructure devices were those related to Ivanti Connect Secure, JetBrains TeamCity, FortiClient Enterprise Management Server, and Palo Alto Networks PAN-OS. Across the industry, we’ve already seen many zero days and vulnerabilities exploiting these internet-connected devices, which provide inroads into the network and store/cache credentials and passwords of other users that are highly valuable for threat actors.

Hacking Operational Technology (OT) gets easier

Hacking OT is notoriously complex – causing damage requires an intimate knowledge of the specific systems being targeted and historically was the reserve of nation states. But as OT has become more reliant and integrated with IT systems, attackers have stumbled on ways to cause disruption without having to rely on the sophisticated attack-craft normally associated with nation-state groups. That’s why some of the most disruptive attacks of the last year have come from hacktivist and financially-motivated criminal gangs – such as the hijacking of internet-exposed Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) by anti-Israel hacking groups and ransomware attacks resulting in the cancellation of hospital operations.  

In 2025, we expect to see an increase in cyber-physical disruption caused by threat groups motivated by political ideology or financial gain, bringing the OT threat landscape closer in complexity and scale to that of the IT landscape. The sectors most at risk are those with a strong reliance on IoT sensors, including healthcare, transportation, and manufacturing sectors.

Securing space infrastructure and systems becomes a critical imperative

The global space industry is growing at an incredibly fast pace, and 2025 is on track to be another record-breaking year for spaceflight with major missions and test flights planned by NASA, ESA, CNSA as well as the expected launch of the first commercial space station from Vast and programs from Blue Origin, Amazon and more. Research from Analysis Mason suggests that 38,000 additional satellites will be built and launched by 2033 and the global space industry revenue will reach $1.7 trillion by 2032. Space has also been identified as a focus area for the incoming US administration.

In 2025, we expect to see new levels of tension emerge as private and public infrastructure increasingly intersect in space, shining a light on the lack of agreed upon cyber norms and the increasing challenge of protecting complex and remote space systems against modern cyber threats.  Historically focused on securing earth-bound networks and environments, the space industry will face challenges as post-orbit threats rise, with satellites moving up the target list.

The EU’s NIS2 Directive now recognizes the space sector as an essential entity that is subject to its most strict cybersecurity requirements. Will other jurisdictions follow suit? We expect global debates about cyber vulnerabilities in space to come to the forefront as we become more reliant on space-based technology.

Preparing for the future

Whatever 2025 brings, Darktrace is committed to providing robust cybersecurity leadership and solutions to enterprises around the world. Our team of subject matter experts will continue to monitor emerging threat trends, advising both our customers and our product development teams.

And for day-to-day security, our multi-layered AI cybersecurity platform can protect against all types of threats, whether they are known, unknown, entirely novel, or powered by AI. It accomplishes this by learning what is normal for your unique organization, therefore identifying unusual and suspicious behavior at machine speed, regardless of existing rules and signatures. In this way, organizations with Darktrace can be ready for any developments in the cybersecurity threat landscape that the new year may bring.

Discover more about Darktrace's predictions on the AI and cybersecurity landscape for 2025 by joining the upcoming webinar on December 12, 2024 at 10:00am EST/3:00pm GMT. Register here.